Sunday, April 4, 2010

AIRS Carbon Dioxide

An Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis of the AIRS CO2 product (monthly anomalies from 2003-2008) using the Earth Trends Modeler (ETM) very clearly shows the progressive increase in CO2 in the mid-troposphere. Below we see the EOT correlation image and its associated temporal graph.

All areas of the globe show very high correlations with the trend, although they are lower in the boreal and tropical forests. Note that this analysis is based on anomalies so that the seasonal variation inherent in the Keeling curve is not so evident.

An analysis of the Theil-Sen slope (below) of the same series shows the rate of increase. Here we see a clearly lower rate of increase in the tropics with the highest rate in Siberia.

Saturday, April 3, 2010

Has the AMO peaked?

Has the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation peaked? An analysis of monthly sea surface temperature anomalies for 1982-2009 using the Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) tool in the Earth Trends Modeler suggests that it may have peaked at some point in 2006 or 2007. This timing would be reasonable given that it was at the lowest part of its cycle around 1974. Here is the graph of EOT2 (in degrees Celsius) along with its correlation image: